Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, since they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.