The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.