Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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