The Lewis-Beck & Tien model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 2 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.