In the latest update, the combined PollyVote concludes that Clinton will gain 53.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.5% for Trump.
A look at Polly's component methods
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now ahead by 50.9%.
Index models predict a vote share of 53.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 58.0% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 13.6 percentage points.
With 52.6% in expectation polls the vote share for the Democrats is notably high in comparison to previous election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, Citizen forecasts expected a vote share of 53.8% for Democratic candidate.