Bio-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Bio-index model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 58.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 41.2%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual index model. Rather than relying on results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Compared to numbers in the Bio-index index model Clinton's index model average is 5.1 percentage points worse.
The Bio-index model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 5.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Bio-index model.