The Bio-index model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 58.8% for Clinton, and 41.2% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Bio-index index model Clinton's index model average is 5.1 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Bio-index model for Clinton are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.