538 (polls-plus) model: Trump trails by a small margin

The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.9%. In comparison, on August 19 Trump was predicted to win 47.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.1%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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