538 (polls-plus) model: Trump trails by a small margin
The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.9%. In comparison, on August 19 Trump was predicted to win 47.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.1%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.