538 (polls-plus) model: Trump trails by a small margin

The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they may contain large biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.1%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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