538 (polls-plus) model: Trump trails by a small margin
The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they may contain large biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.1%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.