538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.1%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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