538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead
The 538 (polls-plus) model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they can include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.