Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Lockerbie model

The Lockerbie model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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