Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 2 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.