Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Vox.Com model

The Vox.Com model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. In comparison to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points worse.

The Vox.Com model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Vox.Com model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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