Primary model: Trump is in the lead

The Primary model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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