PPP (D) poll in Pennsylvania: Trump trails by a negligible margin
PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 29 to July 31. A total of 1505 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. On August 20 Clinton received only 47.9% in the PPP (D) poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. Relative to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 3 percentage points better. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.