New Keys to the White House index model: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie
The Keys to the White House model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be interpreted with caution, as they often include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.
The Keys to the White House model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.