Leading indicators model shows Clinton in the lead

The Leading indicators model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. In comparison to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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