Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton and Trump will each collect 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Jérôme & Jérôme model Clinton's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse. In comparison to the average forecast of other models, which currently predicts Clinton to gain 49.2%, Clinton performed 1 precentage point better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
The Jérôme & Jérôme model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% and Trump 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jérôme & Jérôme model for Clinton are thus 3.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote. Clinton has 3.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.