Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin
The Issues and Leaders model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate large biases. Rather than relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.6 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.