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Issue-index model: Trump trails by a moderate margin


The Issue-index model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 55.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 44.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single index model. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.8%. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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