Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead

The Fiscal model model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.8%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they may include large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 50.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Fiscal model model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.