Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead
The Fiscal model model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.8%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, as they may include large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 50.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Fiscal model model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.