Fair model: Trump with clear lead
The Fair model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Compared to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.