Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Compared to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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