DeSart model: Trump with small lead
The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Compared to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.