Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in new Electoral-cycle model

The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points worse.

The Electoral-cycle model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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