Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in new Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points worse.
The Electoral-cycle model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.