Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Time-for-change model.
The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.