Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of an individual index model. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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