Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

The combined PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 50.9%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are index models with a vote share of 53.7% for Clinton. With a vote share of 57.9% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

In comparison to the predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is notably low with 53.7% in index models. Since 2008 John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, index models expected a vote share of 53.2% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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