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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they can contain large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 3 percentage points lower.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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