538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead
The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, as they can contain large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 3 percentage points lower.
The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.