Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Lockerbie model
The Lockerbie model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. In comparison to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points worse.
The Lockerbie model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.