The Lewis-Beck & Tien model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.