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Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model

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The Lewis-Beck & Tien model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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