Pennsylvania: 10 points lead for Clinton in latest Susquehanna poll
By Susquehanna published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Susquehanna poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 4 with 772 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump. To compare: Only 44.1% was gained by Clinton in the Susquehanna poll on August 20, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 55.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Susquehanna poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.
