Latest Quinnipiac poll in Ohio: Trump trails by a small margin
Results of a new poll carried out by Quinnipiac were announced. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where Democrats and Republicans have often achieved similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 30 to August 7 among 812 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.4 points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. To compare: Only 47.9% was obtained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on August 20, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.