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Primary model: Trump is in the lead

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The Primary model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.8%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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