Primary model: Trump is in the lead
The Primary model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.8%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.