New Time-for-change model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
The Time-for-change model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Time-for-change model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 4.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.