New Keys to the White House index model: Clinton and Trump virtually tied
The Keys to the White House model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the recommended strategy consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.2 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.