Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead

The Leading indicators model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Leading indicators model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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