Latest Big-issue index model: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat
The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.