Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump

The Jérôme & Jérôme model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton and Trump will each receive 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Jérôme & Jérôme model. When compared to the average forecast of other models, which currently predicts Clinton to gain 49.2%, Clinton performed 0.9 precentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% and Trump 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jérôme & Jérôme model for Clinton are thus 3.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote. Clinton has 3.3 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.