Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead

The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton currently runs at 53.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.