The Issue-index model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 55.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 44.9%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, we recommend to use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.8%. In comparison to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 1.4 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.