Fiscal model model: Clinton trails by a small margin
The Fiscal model model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.8%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Fiscal model model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.