Fiscal model model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Fiscal model model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.8%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Fiscal model model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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