Fair model: Trump is in the lead

The Fair model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 56.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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