DeSart model: Trump with small lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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