Polly the parrot currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.4% for Clinton and 46.6% for Trump.
Looking at Polly's components
Polly's component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently in the lead by 50.8%.
Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 53.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.2% of the vote.
Trump lost 12.3 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous week, no other component has shown a shift this large.
When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is particularly low with 53.7% in index models. Since 2008 John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, index models expected a vote share of 53.2% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.