The Electoral-cycle model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.