Ohio: New CBS News/YouGov poll has Trump trailing by 6 points
CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular value.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 17 to August 19 among 997 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump. In the latest CBS News/YouGov poll on August 20 Clinton received only 47.6%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.5%. Compared to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 2 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.