Bio-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Bio-index model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 58.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 41.2%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models often contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Compared to numbers in the Bio-index index model Clinton's index model average is 5.1 percentage points lower.
The Bio-index model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 5.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Bio-index model.