538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.4% for Clinton, and 47.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. This value is 3.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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