Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Time-for-change model

The Time-for-change model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 4.8 percentage points less and Trump has 4.8 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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