Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Lockerbie model
The Lockerbie model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.2 percentage points.
The Lockerbie model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 3.0 percentage points less and Trump has 3.0 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.